Sayana Haskovo 5–0 Sokol Markovo: Result & Stats

Sayana Haskovo

FT

5 – 0

Sokol Markovo

10/17/2021

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 11Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sayana Haskovo72%

×Draw18%

Sokol Markovo10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sayana HaskovoExpected goals in this matchSokol Markovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.71

Sayana Haskovo

2.25

Sokol Markovo

0.71

Sayana Haskovo creates 217% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 98 away

2.08

creates per match

0.72

0.70

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo

2.08

Sokol Markovo

0.72

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo

0.70

Sokol Markovo

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Sokol Markovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw

90%

Sayana Haskovo or Sokol Markovo

82%

Draw or Sokol Markovo

28%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

48%

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

89%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

65%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

39%

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals

51%

Sokol Markovo 2+ goals

16%

Sokol Markovo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

88%

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more

72%

level

18%

Sokol Markovo scores more

10%

Sayana Haskovo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff