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Sayana Haskovo vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
11/18/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 18Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sayana Haskovo63%
×Draw21%
Rodopa Smolyan16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sayana Haskovo
2.02
Rodopa Smolyan
0.92

Sayana Haskovo creates 120% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 120 away

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo
2.08
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo
0.70
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw
84%
Sayana Haskovo or Rodopa Smolyan
79%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
37%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
38%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
87%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
60%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
33%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
60%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
23%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
79%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.02

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more
63%
level
21%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
16%

Sayana Haskovo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sayana Haskovo 3–1 Rodopa Smolyan

Sayana Haskovo beat Rodopa Smolyan 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.