Rodopa Smolyan 0–1 Sayana Haskovo: Result & Stats

Rodopa Smolyan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sayana Haskovo

5/25/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 37Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan45%

×Draw25%

Sayana Haskovo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodopa SmolyanExpected goals in this matchSayana Haskovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.27

Rodopa Smolyan

1.59

Sayana Haskovo

1.27

Rodopa Smolyan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 92 away

1.81

creates per match

1.45

1.10

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan

1.81

Sayana Haskovo

1.45

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan

1.10

Sayana Haskovo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Sayana Haskovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw

69%

Rodopa Smolyan or Sayana Haskovo

75%

Draw or Sayana Haskovo

55%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+

23%

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals

80%

Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals

47%

Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals

21%

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

72%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

36%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)

59%

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more

45%

level

25%

Sayana Haskovo scores more

31%

Rodopa Smolyan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff