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Sayana Haskovo vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
2/24/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 21Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sayana Haskovo73%
×Draw17%
Karnobat10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sayana Haskovo
2.33
Karnobat
0.74

Sayana Haskovo creates 215% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 118 away

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo
2.08
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo
0.70
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw
90%
Sayana Haskovo or Karnobat
83%
Draw or Karnobat
27%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
49%
Karnobat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
90%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
67%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
41%
Karnobat 1+ goals
52%
Karnobat 2+ goals
17%
Karnobat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
88%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more
73%
level
17%
Karnobat scores more
10%

Sayana Haskovo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sayana Haskovo vs Karnobat

Sayana Haskovo beat Karnobat 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.