Sayana Haskovo 0–1 FK Svilengrad: Result & Stats

Sayana Haskovo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Svilengrad

8/10/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 2Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sayana Haskovo65%

×Draw19%

FK Svilengrad16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sayana HaskovoExpected goals in this matchFK Svilengrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

0.99

Sayana Haskovo

2.24

FK Svilengrad

0.99

Sayana Haskovo creates 126% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 18 away

2.08

creates per match

1.28

0.70

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo

2.08

FK Svilengrad

1.28

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo

0.70

FK Svilengrad

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

FK Svilengrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw

84%

Sayana Haskovo or FK Svilengrad

81%

Draw or FK Svilengrad

35%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

42%

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

89%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

65%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

38%

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

63%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

26%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

81%

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

FK Svilengrad away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + FK Svilengrad defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.24

FK Svilengrad attack 1.28 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more

65%

level

19%

FK Svilengrad scores more

16%

Sayana Haskovo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff