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Sayana Haskovo vs FK Sliven — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
FT
9 – 0
FK Sliven
FK Sliven
9/16/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 7Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sayana Haskovo80%
×Draw12%
FK Sliven7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sayana Haskovo
3.00
FK Sliven
0.82

Sayana Haskovo creates 266% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo
2.08
FK Sliven
0.95

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo
0.70
FK Sliven
3.92

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par
FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

FK Sliven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw
93%
Sayana Haskovo or FK Sliven
88%
Draw or FK Sliven
20%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
61%
FK Sliven wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
95%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
79%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
56%
FK Sliven 1+ goals
56%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
20%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
92%
FK Sliven (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.00

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more
80%
level
12%
FK Sliven scores more
7%

Sayana Haskovo at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sayana Haskovo 9–0 FK Sliven

Sayana Haskovo beat FK Sliven 9-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.