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Sayana Haskovo vs Atletik Kuklen — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
2/28/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sayana Haskovo67%
×Draw19%
Atletik Kuklen14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sayana Haskovo
2.15
Atletik Kuklen
0.85

Sayana Haskovo creates 153% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 135 away

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo
2.08
Atletik Kuklen
1.00

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo
0.70
Atletik Kuklen
2.21

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par
Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Atletik Kuklen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw
86%
Sayana Haskovo or Atletik Kuklen
81%
Draw or Atletik Kuklen
33%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
43%
Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
88%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
63%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
36%
Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
57%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
21%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
83%
Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.15

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more
67%
level
19%
Atletik Kuklen scores more
14%

Sayana Haskovo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sayana Haskovo vs Atletik Kuklen

Sayana Haskovo beat Atletik Kuklen 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 28, 2026.