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Saxan vs Speranța Drochia — Super Liga 2026

Saxan
Saxan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
4/16/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 6Stadionul Ceadîr Lunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saxan82%
×Draw12%
Speranța Drochia7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saxan
3.08
Speranța Drochia
0.80

Saxan creates 285% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Saxan
2.72
Speranța Drochia
0.43

allows per match

Saxan
1.17
Speranța Drochia
3.43

finishing

Saxan+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saxan ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Saxan or draw
93%
Saxan or Speranța Drochia
88%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
18%

Winning margin

Saxan wins by 2+
63%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Saxan 1+ goals
95%
Saxan 2+ goals
81%
Saxan 3+ goals
58%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
55%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
19%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Saxan (draw refunded)
92%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saxan at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saxan attack 2.72 + Speranța Drochia defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 3.08

Speranța Drochia attack 0.43 + Saxan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Saxan scores more
82%
level
12%
Speranța Drochia scores more
7%

Saxan at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Saxan 1–0 Speranța Drochia

Saxan beat Speranța Drochia 1-0 in Super Liga on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Ceadîr Lunga in Ceadîr Lunga.