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Saxan vs Iskra — Super Liga 2026

Saxan
Saxan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Iskra
Iskra
N. Telic 90+2'
D. Cucer 89'
B. Musteata 73', 45+1'
5/16/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundJoma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Saxan80%
×Draw13%
Iskra7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saxan
2.70
Iskra
0.65

Saxan creates 315% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Saxan
3.14
Iskra
0.50

allows per match

Saxan
0.79
Iskra
2.25

finishing

Saxan+0.00on par
Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saxan ↓

Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Saxan or draw
93%
Saxan or Iskra
87%
Draw or Iskra
20%

Winning margin

Saxan wins by 2+
59%
Iskra wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Saxan 1+ goals
93%
Saxan 2+ goals
75%
Saxan 3+ goals
50%
Iskra 1+ goals
48%
Iskra 2+ goals
14%
Iskra 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saxan (draw refunded)
92%
Iskra (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saxan at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Iskra away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saxan attack 3.14 + Iskra defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.70

Iskra attack 0.50 + Saxan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Saxan scores more
80%
level
13%
Iskra scores more
7%

Saxan at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
B. Musteata
73'
B. Musteata
89'
D. Cucer
90+2'
N. Telic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saxan 4 – 0 Iskra

Saxan beat Iskra 4-0 in Super Liga on May 16, 2025.

Goals: B. Musteata (45+1', 73'), D. Cucer (89'), N. Telic (90+2').

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.