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Saxan vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport — Super Liga 2026

Saxan
Saxan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
P. Pulucciu 43' (pen)
A. Cozma 39'
E. Gaidarli 37' (pen)
3/16/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 2Stadionul Ceadîr Lunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Saxan65%
×Draw18%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saxan
2.41
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.15

Saxan creates 110% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Saxan
3.14
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.50

allows per match

Saxan
0.79
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.67

finishing

Saxan+0.00on par
Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saxan ↓

Gagauziya-Oguzsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Saxan or draw
83%
Saxan or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
82%
Draw or Gagauziya-Oguzsport
35%

Winning margin

Saxan wins by 2+
43%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saxan 1+ goals
91%
Saxan 2+ goals
69%
Saxan 3+ goals
43%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals
68%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals
32%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Saxan (draw refunded)
79%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saxan at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saxan attack 3.14 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.41

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.50 + Saxan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Saxan scores more
65%
level
18%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more
17%

Saxan at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
E. GaidarliPenalty
39'
A. Cozma
43'
P. PulucciuPenalty
67'
A. Ceh
67'
L. Bamba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Saxan 0–3 Gagauziya-Oguzsport

Gagauziya-Oguzsport beat Saxan 3-0 in Super Liga on March 16, 2024.

Goals: E. Gaidarli (37' pen), A. Cozma (39'), P. Pulucciu (43' pen).

The match was played at Stadionul Ceadîr Lunga in Ceadîr Lunga.