Gagauziya-Oguzsport 0–3 Saxan: Result & Stats

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Saxan

A. Mardari 71'

O. David 58'

D. Andreiciu 32'

10/22/2024

Cupa · 2nd RoundStadion im. V.G. Mumzhieva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gagauziya-Oguzsport27%

×Draw19%

Saxan55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gagauziya-OguzsportExpected goals in this matchSaxan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.66

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

1.85

Saxan

2.66

Saxan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

3.57

1.75

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

1.00

Saxan

3.57

allows per match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport

1.75

Saxan

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gagauziya-Oguzsport+0.00on par

Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gagauziya-Oguzsport ↓

Saxan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Gagauziya-Oguzsport or draw

45%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport or Saxan

81%

Draw or Saxan

73%

Winning margin

Gagauziya-Oguzsport wins by 2+

13%

Saxan wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 1+ goals

84%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 2+ goals

55%

Gagauziya-Oguzsport 3+ goals

28%

Saxan 1+ goals

93%

Saxan 2+ goals

74%

Saxan 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Gagauziya-Oguzsport (draw refunded)

33%

Saxan (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gagauziya-Oguzsport at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Saxan away — creates 3.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gagauziya-Oguzsport attack 1.00 + Saxan defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Saxan attack 3.57 + Gagauziya-Oguzsport defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gagauziya-Oguzsport scores more

27%

level

19%

Saxan scores more

55%

Saxan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

D. Andreiciu

58'

O. David

71'

A. Mardari

80'

I. Cara

80'

I. Cara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff