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Savoia vs Terracina Calcio — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Savoia
Savoia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Terracina Calcio
Terracina Calcio
4/17/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 32Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Savoia65%
×Draw21%
Terracina Calcio14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Savoia
1.97
Terracina Calcio
0.77

Savoia creates 156% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Savoia
1.76
Terracina Calcio
0.88

allows per match

Savoia
0.65
Terracina Calcio
2.18

finishing

Savoia+0.00on par
Terracina Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Savoia ↓

Terracina Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Savoia or draw
86%
Savoia or Terracina Calcio
79%
Draw or Terracina Calcio
35%

Winning margin

Savoia wins by 2+
40%
Terracina Calcio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Savoia 1+ goals
86%
Savoia 2+ goals
58%
Savoia 3+ goals
31%
Terracina Calcio 1+ goals
54%
Terracina Calcio 2+ goals
18%
Terracina Calcio 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Savoia (draw refunded)
83%
Terracina Calcio (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Savoia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Terracina Calcio away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Savoia attack 1.76 + Terracina Calcio defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.97

Terracina Calcio attack 0.88 + Savoia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Savoia scores more
65%
level
21%
Terracina Calcio scores more
14%

Savoia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Savoia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Savoia 2–0 Terracina Calcio

Savoia beat Terracina Calcio 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa in Cardito.