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Savoia vs Real Monterotondo — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Savoia
Savoia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Monterotondo
Real Monterotondo
10/19/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Savoia58%
×Draw24%
Real Monterotondo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Savoia
1.69
Real Monterotondo
0.81

Savoia creates 109% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Savoia
1.76
Real Monterotondo
0.97

allows per match

Savoia
0.65
Real Monterotondo
1.61

finishing

Savoia+0.00on par
Real Monterotondo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Savoia ↓

Real Monterotondo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Savoia or draw
82%
Savoia or Real Monterotondo
76%
Draw or Real Monterotondo
42%

Winning margin

Savoia wins by 2+
32%
Real Monterotondo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Savoia 1+ goals
82%
Savoia 2+ goals
50%
Savoia 3+ goals
24%
Real Monterotondo 1+ goals
56%
Real Monterotondo 2+ goals
19%
Real Monterotondo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Savoia (draw refunded)
77%
Real Monterotondo (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Savoia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Real Monterotondo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Savoia attack 1.76 + Real Monterotondo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69

Real Monterotondo attack 0.97 + Savoia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Savoia scores more
58%
level
24%
Real Monterotondo scores more
18%

Savoia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Savoia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Savoia 2–1 Real Monterotondo

Savoia beat Real Monterotondo 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa in Cardito.