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Savoia vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Savoia
Savoia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
1/26/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 21Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Savoia56%
×Draw24%
Latte Dolce20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Savoia
1.68
Latte Dolce
0.88

Savoia creates 91% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Savoia
1.76
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Savoia
0.65
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Savoia+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Savoia ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Savoia or draw
80%
Savoia or Latte Dolce
76%
Draw or Latte Dolce
44%

Winning margin

Savoia wins by 2+
31%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Savoia 1+ goals
81%
Savoia 2+ goals
50%
Savoia 3+ goals
24%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
59%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
22%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Savoia (draw refunded)
74%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Savoia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Savoia attack 1.76 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Savoia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Savoia scores more
56%
level
24%
Latte Dolce scores more
20%

Savoia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Savoia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Savoia vs Latte Dolce

Savoia beat Latte Dolce 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa in Cardito.