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Savoia vs Albalonga — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Savoia
Savoia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Albalonga
Albalonga
5/4/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 34Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Savoia52%
×Draw25%
Albalonga23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Savoia
1.61
Albalonga
0.97

Savoia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Savoia
1.76
Albalonga
1.29

allows per match

Savoia
0.65
Albalonga
1.47

finishing

Savoia+0.00on par
Albalonga+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Savoia ↓

Albalonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Savoia or draw
77%
Savoia or Albalonga
75%
Draw or Albalonga
48%

Winning margin

Savoia wins by 2+
28%
Albalonga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Savoia 1+ goals
80%
Savoia 2+ goals
48%
Savoia 3+ goals
22%
Albalonga 1+ goals
62%
Albalonga 2+ goals
25%
Albalonga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Savoia (draw refunded)
70%
Albalonga (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Savoia at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Albalonga away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Savoia attack 1.76 + Albalonga defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.61

Albalonga attack 1.29 + Savoia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Savoia scores more
52%
level
25%
Albalonga scores more
23%

Savoia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Savoia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Savoia vs Albalonga

Savoia and Albalonga drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Vittorio Papa in Cardito.