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Sava Kranj vs Brinje-Grosuplje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Sava Kranj
Sava Kranj
FT
1 – 2
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
5/8/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 13Športni park Stražišče

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sava Kranj32%
×Draw22%
Brinje-Grosuplje46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sava Kranj
1.56
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.89

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sava Kranj
1.33
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.11

allows per match

Sava Kranj
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.78

finishing

Sava Kranj+0.00on par
Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sava Kranj ↓

Brinje-Grosuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sava Kranj or draw
54%
Sava Kranj or Brinje-Grosuplje
78%
Draw or Brinje-Grosuplje
68%

Winning margin

Sava Kranj wins by 2+
15%
Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sava Kranj 1+ goals
79%
Sava Kranj 2+ goals
46%
Sava Kranj 3+ goals
21%
Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals
85%
Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals
56%
Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sava Kranj (draw refunded)
41%
Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sava Kranj at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Brinje-Grosuplje away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sava Kranj attack 1.33 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 2.11 + Sava Kranj defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sava Kranj scores more
32%
level
22%
Brinje-Grosuplje scores more
46%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sava Kranj vs Brinje-Grosuplje

Brinje-Grosuplje beat Sava Kranj 2-1 in 3. SNL - West on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Športni park Stražišče in Kranj.