Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Saue vs Maksatransport — Cup 2020

Saue
Saueadvanced
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Maksatransport
Maksatransport
8/13/2025CupCup · Round of 64Kernu PK staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saue50%
×Draw18%
Maksatransport33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saue
3.20
Maksatransport
2.63

Saue creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Saue
4.00
Maksatransport
3.60

allows per match

Saue
1.67
Maksatransport
2.40

finishing

Saue+0.00on par
Maksatransport+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saue ↓

Maksatransport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Saue or draw
67%
Saue or Maksatransport
82%
Draw or Maksatransport
50%

Winning margin

Saue wins by 2+
32%
Maksatransport wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Saue 1+ goals
96%
Saue 2+ goals
82%
Saue 3+ goals
60%
Maksatransport 1+ goals
93%
Maksatransport 2+ goals
73%
Maksatransport 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Saue (draw refunded)
60%
Maksatransport (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saue at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Maksatransport away — creates 3.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saue attack 4.00 + Maksatransport defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.20

Maksatransport attack 3.60 + Saue defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saue scores more
50%
level
18%
Maksatransport scores more
33%

Saue at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Saue 6–1 Maksatransport

Saue beat Maksatransport 6-1 in Cup on August 13, 2025.

The match was played at Kernu PK staadion in Kernu.