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Saudi Arabia W vs Palestine W — Friendlies Women 2026

Saudi Arabia W
Saudi Arabia W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Palestine W
Palestine W
A. Fahad 65'
S. Tawfeeq 39'
12/3/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2ASPIRE Dome Hall 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Saudi Arabia W60%
×Draw24%
Palestine W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia W
1.67
Palestine W
0.72

Saudi Arabia W creates 132% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia W
1.71
Palestine W
0.82

allows per match

Saudi Arabia W
0.63
Palestine W
1.64

finishing

Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par
Palestine W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia W ↓

Palestine W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia W or draw
84%
Saudi Arabia W or Palestine W
76%
Draw or Palestine W
40%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+
34%
Palestine W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals
81%
Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals
50%
Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals
23%
Palestine W 1+ goals
51%
Palestine W 2+ goals
16%
Palestine W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)
79%
Palestine W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Palestine W away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.71 + Palestine W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Palestine W attack 0.82 + Saudi Arabia W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Saudi Arabia W scores more
60%
level
24%
Palestine W scores more
16%

Saudi Arabia W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Saudi Arabia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
S. Tawfeeq
60'
S. Alhamad← S. Alhamad
60'
A. Fahad← A. Fahad
65'
A. Fahad
76'
77'
79'
80'
S. Al Hawsawi← S. Al Hawsawi
80'
T. Al Ghamdi← T. Al Ghamdi
80'
H. Al Shamrani← H. Al Shamrani
84'
89'
R. Al Mansouri← R. Al Mansouri
89'
90+2'
90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia W vs Palestine W

Saudi Arabia W beat Palestine W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on December 3, 2024.

Goals: S. Tawfeeq (39'), A. Fahad (65').

The match was played at ASPIRE Dome Hall 1 in Doha.