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Saudi Arabia W vs Kyrgyz Republic W — Friendlies Women 2026

Saudi Arabia W
Saudi Arabia W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kyrgyz Republic W
Kyrgyz Republic W
M. Al Bandari 53', 28', 22'
3/6/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saudi Arabia W50%
×Draw25%
Kyrgyz Republic W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia W
1.64
Kyrgyz Republic W
1.10

Saudi Arabia W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 7 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia W
1.71
Kyrgyz Republic W
1.57

allows per match

Saudi Arabia W
0.63
Kyrgyz Republic W
1.57

finishing

Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par
Kyrgyz Republic W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia W ↓

Kyrgyz Republic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia W or draw
74%
Saudi Arabia W or Kyrgyz Republic W
75%
Draw or Kyrgyz Republic W
50%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+
26%
Kyrgyz Republic W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals
81%
Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals
49%
Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals
23%
Kyrgyz Republic W 1+ goals
67%
Kyrgyz Republic W 2+ goals
30%
Kyrgyz Republic W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)
66%
Kyrgyz Republic W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Kyrgyz Republic W away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.71 + Kyrgyz Republic W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Kyrgyz Republic W attack 1.57 + Saudi Arabia W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saudi Arabia W scores more
50%
level
25%
Kyrgyz Republic W scores more
26%

Saudi Arabia W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saudi Arabia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
M. Al Bandari
28'
M. Al Bandari
53'
M. Al Bandari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Saudi Arabia W 3–0 Kyrgyz Republic W

Saudi Arabia W beat Kyrgyz Republic W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on March 6, 2026.

Goals: M. Al Bandari (22', 28', 53').