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Saudi Arabia W vs Hong Kong W — Friendlies Women 2026

Saudi Arabia W
Saudi Arabia W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hong Kong W
Hong Kong W
R. Mukhaizin 90'
C. Hing 80'
K. P. Ling Lucia 75'
4/8/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesPrince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Saudi Arabia W54%
×Draw23%
Hong Kong W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia W
1.81
Hong Kong W
1.09

Saudi Arabia W creates 66% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia W
1.71
Hong Kong W
1.55

allows per match

Saudi Arabia W
0.63
Hong Kong W
1.91

finishing

Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par
Hong Kong W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia W ↓

Hong Kong W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia W or draw
77%
Saudi Arabia W or Hong Kong W
77%
Draw or Hong Kong W
46%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+
30%
Hong Kong W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals
84%
Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals
54%
Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals
27%
Hong Kong W 1+ goals
66%
Hong Kong W 2+ goals
30%
Hong Kong W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)
70%
Hong Kong W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia W at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Hong Kong W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.71 + Hong Kong W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.81

Hong Kong W attack 1.55 + Saudi Arabia W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Saudi Arabia W scores more
54%
level
23%
Hong Kong W scores more
23%

Saudi Arabia W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saudi Arabia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
K. P. Ling Lucia
80'
C. Hing
90'
R. Mukhaizin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia W vs Hong Kong W

Hong Kong W beat Saudi Arabia W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on April 8, 2025.

Goals: K. P. Ling Lucia (75'), C. Hing (80'), R. Mukhaizin (90').

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Dammam.