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Saudi Arabia vs Venezuela — Friendlies 2026

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Venezuela
Venezuela
Salem Al-Dawsari 73'
Salomón Rondón 34'
Josef Martínez 26'
3/24/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Saudi Arabia31%
×Draw30%
Venezuela39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
0.94
Venezuela
1.10

Venezuela creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.00
Venezuela
1.42

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.79
Venezuela
0.88

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
61%
Saudi Arabia or Venezuela
70%
Draw or Venezuela
69%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
11%
Venezuela wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
61%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
24%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
7%
Venezuela 1+ goals
67%
Venezuela 2+ goals
30%
Venezuela 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
44%
Venezuela (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Venezuela away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.00 + Venezuela defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Venezuela attack 1.42 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
31%
level
30%
Venezuela scores more
39%

Venezuela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
Nasser Al-DawsariSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia · M
7.3

Match Events

12'
Yordan Osorio
18'
Saud Abdulhamid
26'
Josef Martínez↳ Salomón Rondón
34'
Salomón Rondón↳ Eduard Bello
46'
Saleh Al-Shehri← Abdulrahman Ghareeb
46'
Nasser Al-Dawsari← Moteb Al-Harbi
52'
Salomón Rondón
60'
Júnior Moreno← Tomás Rincón
60'
Ernesto Torregrossa← Josef Martínez
62'
Abdullah Alkhaibari← Husain Al-Monassar
62'
Abdulaziz Al-Bishi← Haroune Camara
65'
Saud AbdulhamidPenalty cancelled
71'
Yohan Cumana← Samuel Sosa
71'
Jhon Murillo← Eduard Bello
71'
Jean Fuentes← Jhon Chancellor
73'
Salem Al-Dawsari↳ Abdulaziz Al-Bishi
74'
Abdullah Al-Hamddan← Firas Al-Buraikan
74'
Abdulelah Al-Amri← Ali Al-Boleahi
90+6'
Alexander González
90'
Brayan Alcocer Narváez← Miguel Navarro

Possession

72%Saudi

Shots

11Saudi

Pass accuracy

54%Saudi

Statistics

SaudiVenezuela
Overview
72%Possession28%
11Total Shots7
1Corners2
10Fouls20
Shots
11Total Shots7
4On Target3
4Off Target1
3Blocked3
4Inside Box4
7Outside Box3
Passing
72%Possession28%
690Total Passes279
604Accurate Passes208
88%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls20
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia vs Venezuela

Venezuela beat Saudi Arabia 2-1 in Friendlies on March 24, 2023.

Goals: Josef Martínez (26'), Salomón Rondón (34'), Salem Al-Dawsari (73').

Saudi Arabia controlled possession (72%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.