Saudi Arabia 3–0 United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

United Arab Emirates

Yehya Al Shehri 90+1'

Nawaf Al Abid 79'

Fahad Al Muwallad 73'

10/11/2016

League #30 · 3rd Round - 4King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saudi Arabia67%

×Draw22%

United Arab Emirates11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saudi ArabiaExpected goals in this matchUnited Arab Emirates

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.55

Saudi Arabia

1.77

United Arab Emirates

0.55

Saudi Arabia creates 222% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

0.54

0.57

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Saudi Arabia

2.00

United Arab Emirates

0.54

allows per match

Saudi Arabia

0.57

United Arab Emirates

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

United Arab Emirates+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

United Arab Emirates →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw

89%

Saudi Arabia or United Arab Emirates

78%

Draw or United Arab Emirates

33%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

40%

United Arab Emirates wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

83%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

53%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

26%

United Arab Emirates 1+ goals

42%

United Arab Emirates 2+ goals

11%

United Arab Emirates 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

86%

United Arab Emirates (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

United Arab Emirates away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 2.00 + United Arab Emirates defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

United Arab Emirates attack 0.54 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more

67%

level

22%

United Arab Emirates scores more

11%

Saudi Arabia at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Abdulaziz Haikal

57'

Taisir Al-Jassim

58'

Hassan Ibrahim← Ahmed Khalil

66'

Fahad Al Muwallad← Nasser Al Shamrani

72'

Habib Fardan Abdualla← Tariq Ahmed

73'

Fahad Al Muwallad↳ Salman Al Faraj

79'

Nawaf Al Abid↳ Taisir Al Jassim

81'

Saeed Al Kathiri← Khamis Esmail

86'

Naif Hazazi← Nawaf Al Abid

90+3'

Motaz Hawsawi← Taisir Al Jassim

90+1'

Yehya Al Shehri

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SaudiUnited

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots8

3Corners5

6Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots8

7On Target2

6Off Target6

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2