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Saudi Arabia vs Trinidad and Tobago — Friendlies 2026

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
FT
3 – 1
Trinidad and Tobago
Trinidad and Tobago
12/17/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Al-Shabab Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Saudi Arabia65%
×Draw23%
Trinidad and Tobago12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
1.68
Trinidad and Tobago
0.56

Saudi Arabia creates 200% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.00
Trinidad and Tobago
0.29

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.83
Trinidad and Tobago
2.35

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
Trinidad and Tobago+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Trinidad and Tobago →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
88%
Saudi Arabia or Trinidad and Tobago
77%
Draw or Trinidad and Tobago
35%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
37%
Trinidad and Tobago wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
81%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
50%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
24%
Trinidad and Tobago 1+ goals
43%
Trinidad and Tobago 2+ goals
11%
Trinidad and Tobago 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
84%
Trinidad and Tobago (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

Trinidad and Tobago away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.00 + Trinidad and Tobago defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.68

Trinidad and Tobago attack 0.29 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
65%
level
23%
Trinidad and Tobago scores more
12%

Saudi Arabia at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Saudi Arabia 3–1 Trinidad and Tobago

Saudi Arabia beat Trinidad and Tobago 3-1 in Friendlies on December 17, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Riyadh.