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Saudi Arabia vs Thailand — Asian Cup 2019

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Thailand
Thailand
1/25/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 3Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Saudi Arabia44%
×Draw33%
Thailand23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
1.05
Thailand
0.68

Saudi Arabia creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.50
Thailand
0.60

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.75
Thailand
0.60

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
Thailand+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Thailand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
77%
Saudi Arabia or Thailand
67%
Draw or Thailand
56%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
18%
Thailand wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
65%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
28%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
9%
Thailand 1+ goals
49%
Thailand 2+ goals
15%
Thailand 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
65%
Thailand (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Thailand away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.50 + Thailand defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Thailand attack 0.60 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
44%
level
33%
Thailand scores more
23%

Saudi Arabia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia vs Thailand

Saudi Arabia and Thailand drew 0-0 in Asian Cup on January 25, 2024.

The match was played at Education City Stadium in Ar-Rayyan.