Saudi Arabia 1–2 Mexico: Result & Stats | World Cup

Saudi Arabia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mexico

Salem Al Dawsari 90+5'

L. Chávez 52'

H. Martín 47'

11/30/2022

World Cup · Group Stage - 3Lusail Iconic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saudi Arabia37%

×Draw27%

Mexico37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saudi ArabiaExpected goals in this matchMexico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

Saudi Arabia

1.29

Mexico

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

1.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Saudi Arabia

1.33

Mexico

1.25

allows per match

Saudi Arabia

1.33

Mexico

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Mexico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Mexico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw

63%

Saudi Arabia or Mexico

73%

Draw or Mexico

63%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

16%

Mexico wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

72%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

37%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

14%

Mexico 1+ goals

72%

Mexico 2+ goals

37%

Mexico 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

50%

Mexico (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Mexico away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.33 + Mexico defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mexico attack 1.25 + Saudi Arabia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more

37%

level

27%

Mexico scores more

37%

Saudi Arabia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Mohammed Al Owais

Saudi Arabia · G

8.2

Match Events

16'

Edson Álvarez

28'

Saleh Al-Shehri

34'

Ali Al-Hassan

37'

Riyadh Sharahili← Ali Al Bulayhi

46'

Abdullah Madu← Ali Al Hassan

46'

47'

52'

52'

62'

Abdulrahman Al Obud← Saleh Al Shehri

77'

C. Rodríguez← O. Pineda

77'

R. Jiménez← H. Martín

81'

Abdullah Madu

86'

R. Funes Mori← E. Álvarez

86'

K. Álvarez← J. Sánchez

88'

Hattan Bahbri← Sultan Al Ghannam

90+7'

Hattan Bahebri

90+1'

Abdulelah Al-Amri

90+5'

Salem Al Dawsari↳ Hattan Bahbri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaudiMexico

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots26

1Corners8

20Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots26

2On Target11

7Off Target7

1Blocked8

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box16

Passing

39%Possession61%

287Total Passes426

166Accurate Passes320

58%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls18

6Yellow Cards1

2Offsides6