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Saudi Arabia vs Indonesia — League #30 2026

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Indonesia
Indonesia
M. Al Juwayr 45'
S. Walsh 19'
9/5/2024League #30League #30 · 3rd Round - 1King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Saudi Arabia82%
×Draw13%
Indonesia5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
2.63
Indonesia
0.53

Saudi Arabia creates 396% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
2.00
Indonesia
0.50

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.57
Indonesia
3.25

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
Indonesia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Indonesia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
95%
Saudi Arabia or Indonesia
87%
Draw or Indonesia
18%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
60%
Indonesia wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
93%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
73%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
48%
Indonesia 1+ goals
41%
Indonesia 2+ goals
10%
Indonesia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
94%
Indonesia (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Indonesia away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 2.00 + Indonesia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Indonesia attack 0.50 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
82%
level
13%
Indonesia scores more
5%

Saudi Arabia at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. Al JuwayrSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia · M
7.9

Match Events

19'
S. Walsh↳ R. Oratmangoen
23'
Calvin Verdonk
33'
S. Abdulhamid← M. Al Harbi
45'
M. Al Juwayr↳ M. Kanno
46'
A. Ghareeb← A. Al Khaibari
58'
F. Al Buraikan← A. Radif
58'
S. Pattynama← Witan
59'
M. Ferdinan← T. Haye
68'
A. Mangkualam← S. Walsh
80'
M. Ferarri← R. Ridho
80'
E. Vikri← I. Jenner
83'
Muhammad Ferarri
85'
Sultan Al-Ghannam
89'
Maarten Paes
89'
A. Al Hassan← S. Al Ghannam
89'
F. Al Muwallad← S. Al Dawsari
90+8'
Mohamed Kanno

Possession

66%Saudi

Shots

18Saudi

Pass accuracy

54%Saudi

Statistics

SaudiIndonesia
Overview
66%Possession34%
18Total Shots7
6Corners1
6Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots7
4On Target2
7Off Target3
7Blocked2
12Inside Box3
6Outside Box4
Passing
66%Possession34%
593Total Passes313
505Accurate Passes229
85%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

League #30: Saudi Arabia 1–1 Indonesia

Saudi Arabia and Indonesia drew 1-1 in League #30 on September 5, 2024.

Goals: S. Walsh (19'), M. Al Juwayr (45').

Saudi Arabia controlled possession (66%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.