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Saudi Arabia vs Hong Kong — Friendlies 2026

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
FT
2 – 0
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
1/10/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Saudi Arabia46%
×Draw31%
Hong Kong23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
1.18
Hong Kong
0.75

Saudi Arabia creates 57% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 9 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.03
Hong Kong
0.67

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.83
Hong Kong
1.33

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
Hong Kong+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Hong Kong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
77%
Saudi Arabia or Hong Kong
69%
Draw or Hong Kong
54%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
20%
Hong Kong wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
69%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
33%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
12%
Hong Kong 1+ goals
53%
Hong Kong 2+ goals
17%
Hong Kong 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
66%
Hong Kong (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

Hong Kong away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.03 + Hong Kong defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Hong Kong attack 0.67 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
46%
level
31%
Hong Kong scores more
23%

Saudi Arabia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Saudi Arabia 2–0 Hong Kong

Saudi Arabia beat Hong Kong 2-0 in Friendlies on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium in Al-Wakra.