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Saudi Arabia vs FYR Macedonia — Friendlies 2026

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
Abdullah Al-Hamdan 78'
Firas Al-Buraikan 45'
Aleksandar Trajkovski 40'
9/4/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1FK Viktoria Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Saudi Arabia52%
×Draw31%
FYR Macedonia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
1.20
FYR Macedonia
0.56

Saudi Arabia creates 114% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 10 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.00
FYR Macedonia
0.30

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.83
FYR Macedonia
1.40

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

FYR Macedonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
83%
Saudi Arabia or FYR Macedonia
69%
Draw or FYR Macedonia
48%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
23%
FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
70%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
34%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
12%
FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
43%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
11%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
75%
FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 0.30, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.00 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

FYR Macedonia attack 0.30 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
52%
level
31%
FYR Macedonia scores more
17%

Saudi Arabia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
Saleh Abu Al-ShamatSaudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia · F
8.3

Match Events

40'
Aleksandar Trajkovski↳ Stefan Despotovski
45'
Firas Al-Buraikan↳ Saleh Abu Al-Shamat
46'
Ali Majrashi← Saad Fahad Al Nasser
46'
Elmin Rastoder← Aleksandar Trajkovski
46'
Lirim Qamili← Ezgjan Alioski
46'
Bojan Ilievski← Darko Velkovski
58'
Lirim Qamili
60'
Eljif Elmas← Luka Stankovski
60'
Enis Bardhi← Isnik Alimi
66'
Mohamed Kanno
67'
Abdullah Al-Hamdan← Saleh Abu Al-Shamat
67'
Marwan Alsahafi← Abdulrahman Alobud
67'
Saleh Al-Shehri← Firas Al-Buraikan
75'
Tihomir Kostadinov← Milan Ristovski
78'
Abdullah Al-Hamdan
78'
Mukhtar Ali← Musab Al Juwayr
84'
Abdulrahman Al Sanbi
86'
Saad Al-Mousa← Moteb Al-Harbi
90+1'
Ali Majrashi

Possession

65%Saudi

Shots

11Saudi

Pass accuracy

53%Saudi

Statistics

SaudiFYR
Overview
65%Possession35%
11Total Shots5
5Corners7
10Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots5
7On Target2
3Off Target2
1Blocked1
6Inside Box3
5Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
551Total Passes276
470Accurate Passes205
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides7

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia vs FYR Macedonia

Saudi Arabia beat FYR Macedonia 2-1 in Friendlies on September 4, 2025.

Goals: Aleksandar Trajkovski (40'), Firas Al-Buraikan (45'), Abdullah Al-Hamdan (78').

Saudi Arabia controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at FK Viktoria Stadion in Prague.