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Saudi Arabia vs Equatorial Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
3/25/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1King Fahd International Stadium (Ar-Riyāḍ (Riyadh))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Saudi Arabia47%
×Draw30%
Equatorial Guinea22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
1.21
Equatorial Guinea
0.73

Saudi Arabia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 8 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.03
Equatorial Guinea
0.63

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.83
Equatorial Guinea
1.38

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Equatorial Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
78%
Saudi Arabia or Equatorial Guinea
70%
Draw or Equatorial Guinea
53%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
21%
Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
70%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
34%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
12%
Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
52%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
17%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
68%
Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.03 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.63 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
47%
level
30%
Equatorial Guinea scores more
22%

Saudi Arabia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia vs Equatorial Guinea

Saudi Arabia beat Equatorial Guinea 3-2 in Friendlies on March 25, 2019.

The match was played at King Fahd International Stadium (Ar-Riyāḍ (Riyadh)).