Saudi Arabia 1–2 Bolivia: Result & Stats

Saudi Arabia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bolivia

Salem Al-Dawsari 44' (pen)

Carmelo Algarañaz 67'

Marcelo Moreno 13'

3/28/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Saudi Arabia53%

×Draw28%

Bolivia19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saudi ArabiaExpected goals in this matchBolivia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.71

Saudi Arabia

1.40

Bolivia

0.71

Saudi Arabia creates 97% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 29 away

1.00

creates per match

0.59

0.83

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Saudi Arabia

1.00

Bolivia

0.59

allows per match

Saudi Arabia

0.83

Bolivia

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Bolivia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Bolivia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw

81%

Saudi Arabia or Bolivia

72%

Draw or Bolivia

47%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

27%

Bolivia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

75%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

41%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

17%

Bolivia 1+ goals

51%

Bolivia 2+ goals

16%

Bolivia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

74%

Bolivia (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

Bolivia away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.00 + Bolivia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bolivia attack 0.59 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more

53%

level

28%

Bolivia scores more

19%

Saudi Arabia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Ahmed Sharahili

Saudi Arabia · D

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Luciano Ursino

13'

Marcelo Moreno↳ Jaime Arrascaita

19'

Danny Bejarano

24'

Diego Daniel Medina Roman

43'

Jairo Quinteros

44'

Salem Al-DawsariPenalty

55'

Mohammed Al-Owais

64'

Firas Al-Buraikan← Abdulaziz Al-Bishi

64'

Fahad Ayed Al-Rashidi← Saleh Al-Shehri

65'

Boris Cespedes← Danny Bejarano

65'

Carmelo Algarañaz← Miguel Terceros

67'

Carmelo Algarañaz↳ Diego Daniel Medina Roman

72'

Mohamed Kanno

76'

Fawaz Al-Sagour← Sultan Al-Ghannam

76'

Haitham Mohammed Asiri← Salem Al-Dawsari

80'

Gabriel Villamil← Luciano Ursino

80'

Carlos Roca← Jaime Arrascaita

85'

Husain Al-Monassar← Mohamed Kanno

85'

Haroune Camara← Haitham Mohammed Asiri

90+3'

Jeyson Chura

90+3'

Marcelo Moreno

90'

Jeyson Chura← Roberto Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaudiBolivia

Overview

73%Possession27%

14Total Shots8

8Corners0

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots8

2On Target5

8Off Target3

4Blocked0

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

73%Possession27%

627Total Passes241

540Accurate Passes161

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards6

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia vs Bolivia

Bolivia beat Saudi Arabia 2-1 in Friendlies on March 28, 2023.

Goals: Marcelo Moreno (13'), Salem Al-Dawsari (44' pen), Carmelo Algarañaz (67').

Saudi Arabia controlled possession (73%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.

Saudi Arabia vs Bolivia — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia vs Bolivia