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Saudi Arabia vs Albania — Friendlies 2026

Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Albania
Albania
Odise Roshi 48'
10/26/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Al Nahyan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Saudi Arabia45%
×Draw32%
Albania23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia
1.11
Albania
0.70

Saudi Arabia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 9 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia
1.00
Albania
0.56

allows per match

Saudi Arabia
0.83
Albania
1.22

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par
Albania+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Albania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw
77%
Saudi Arabia or Albania
68%
Draw or Albania
55%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+
19%
Albania wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals
67%
Saudi Arabia 2+ goals
30%
Saudi Arabia 3+ goals
10%
Albania 1+ goals
50%
Albania 2+ goals
16%
Albania 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)
66%
Albania (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 36 matches

Albania away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 1.00 + Albania defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Albania attack 0.56 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more
45%
level
32%
Albania scores more
23%

Saudi Arabia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
Odise Roshi
Saudi
Albania
Pizzi
Manager: Pizzi
E. Reja
Manager: E. Reja

Friendlies: Saudi Arabia 1–1 Albania

Saudi Arabia and Albania drew 1-1 in Friendlies on October 26, 2022.

Goals: Odise Roshi (48').

The match was played at Al Nahyan Stadium in Abu Dhabi.