Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Saudi Arabia U23 vs Iraq U23 — Friendlies 2025

Saudi Arabia U23
Saudi Arabia U23
FT
0 – 1
Iraq U23
Iraq U23
11/15/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Saudi Arabia U2376%
×Draw16%
Iraq U238%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia U23
2.45
Iraq U23
0.68

Saudi Arabia U23 creates 260% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia U23
2.50
Iraq U23
0.60

allows per match

Saudi Arabia U23
0.75
Iraq U23
2.40

finishing

Saudi Arabia U23+0.00on par
Iraq U23+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia U23 ↓

Iraq U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia U23 or draw
92%
Saudi Arabia U23 or Iraq U23
84%
Draw or Iraq U23
24%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia U23 wins by 2+
53%
Iraq U23 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia U23 1+ goals
91%
Saudi Arabia U23 2+ goals
70%
Saudi Arabia U23 3+ goals
44%
Iraq U23 1+ goals
49%
Iraq U23 2+ goals
15%
Iraq U23 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia U23 (draw refunded)
90%
Iraq U23 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia U23 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Iraq U23 away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia U23 attack 2.50 + Iraq U23 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.45

Iraq U23 attack 0.60 + Saudi Arabia U23 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Saudi Arabia U23 scores more
76%
level
16%
Iraq U23 scores more
8%

Saudi Arabia U23 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Saudi Arabia U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia U23 vs Iraq U23

Iraq U23 beat Saudi Arabia U23 1-0 in Friendlies on November 15, 2025.