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Saudi Arabia U20 W vs Botswana W — Friendlies Women 2026

Saudi Arabia U20 W
Saudi Arabia U20 W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Botswana W
Botswana W
L. Moloi 89', 86', 55'
4/12/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saudi Arabia U20 W8%
×Draw15%
Botswana W77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia U20 W
0.66
Botswana W
2.52

Botswana W creates 282% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia U20 W
0.00
Botswana W
1.38

allows per match

Saudi Arabia U20 W
3.67
Botswana W
1.31

finishing

Saudi Arabia U20 W+0.00on par
Botswana W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia U20 W ↓

Botswana W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia U20 W or draw
23%
Saudi Arabia U20 W or Botswana W
85%
Draw or Botswana W
92%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia U20 W wins by 2+
2%
Botswana W wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia U20 W 1+ goals
48%
Saudi Arabia U20 W 2+ goals
14%
Saudi Arabia U20 W 3+ goals
3%
Botswana W 1+ goals
92%
Botswana W 2+ goals
71%
Botswana W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia U20 W (draw refunded)
9%
Botswana W (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia U20 W at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Botswana W away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia U20 W attack 0.00 + Botswana W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.66

Botswana W attack 1.38 + Saudi Arabia U20 W defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Saudi Arabia U20 W scores more
8%
level
15%
Botswana W scores more
77%

Botswana W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Botswana W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
L. Moloi
86'
L. Moloi
89'
L. Moloi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saudi Arabia U20 W vs Botswana W

Botswana W beat Saudi Arabia U20 W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on April 12, 2026.

Goals: L. Moloi (55', 86', 89').