Saudi Arabia U20 1–1 Qatar U20: Result & Stats

Saudi Arabia U20

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Qatar U20

3/30/2026

Friendlies · Friendly InternationalPrince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Saudi Arabia U2076%

×Draw15%

Qatar U208%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saudi Arabia U20Expected goals in this matchQatar U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.70

Saudi Arabia U20

2.50

Qatar U20

0.70

Saudi Arabia U20 creates 257% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

0.80

0.60

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Saudi Arabia U20

1.60

Qatar U20

0.80

allows per match

Saudi Arabia U20

0.60

Qatar U20

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saudi Arabia U20+0.00on par

Qatar U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia U20 ↓

Qatar U20 →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia U20 or draw

92%

Saudi Arabia U20 or Qatar U20

85%

Draw or Qatar U20

24%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia U20 wins by 2+

54%

Qatar U20 wins by 2+

Team goals

Saudi Arabia U20 1+ goals

92%

Saudi Arabia U20 2+ goals

71%

Saudi Arabia U20 3+ goals

45%

Qatar U20 1+ goals

50%

Qatar U20 2+ goals

16%

Qatar U20 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia U20 (draw refunded)

90%

Qatar U20 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Qatar U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia U20 attack 1.60 + Qatar U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.50

Qatar U20 attack 0.80 + Saudi Arabia U20 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Saudi Arabia U20 scores more

76%

level

15%

Qatar U20 scores more

Saudi Arabia U20 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Saudi Arabia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff