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Saudi Arabia U20 vs Iraq U20 — Friendlies 2018

Saudi Arabia U20
Saudi Arabia U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Iraq U20
Iraq U20
9/7/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Saudi Arabia U2045%
×Draw30%
Iraq U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saudi Arabia U20
1.18
Iraq U20
0.80

Saudi Arabia U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Saudi Arabia U20
1.60
Iraq U20
1.00

allows per match

Saudi Arabia U20
0.60
Iraq U20
0.75

finishing

Saudi Arabia U20+0.00on par
Iraq U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia U20 ↓

Iraq U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia U20 or draw
75%
Saudi Arabia U20 or Iraq U20
70%
Draw or Iraq U20
55%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia U20 wins by 2+
19%
Iraq U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia U20 1+ goals
69%
Saudi Arabia U20 2+ goals
33%
Saudi Arabia U20 3+ goals
12%
Iraq U20 1+ goals
55%
Iraq U20 2+ goals
19%
Iraq U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Iraq U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Iraq U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia U20 attack 1.60 + Iraq U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Iraq U20 attack 1.00 + Saudi Arabia U20 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saudi Arabia U20 scores more
45%
level
30%
Iraq U20 scores more
25%

Saudi Arabia U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saudi Arabia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Saudi Arabia U20 2–1 Iraq U20

Saudi Arabia U20 beat Iraq U20 2-1 in Friendlies on September 7, 2025.