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Sauchie Juniors vs St Andrews United — FA Cup 2019

Sauchie Juniors
Sauchie Juniors
FT
4 – 2
St Andrews United
St Andrews United
8/27/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sauchie Juniors77%
×Draw13%
St Andrews United10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sauchie Juniors
3.38
St Andrews United
1.21

Sauchie Juniors creates 179% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sauchie Juniors
2.50
St Andrews United
1.25

allows per match

Sauchie Juniors
1.17
St Andrews United
4.25

finishing

Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par
St Andrews United+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sauchie Juniors ↓

St Andrews United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sauchie Juniors or draw
90%
Sauchie Juniors or St Andrews United
87%
Draw or St Andrews United
23%

Winning margin

Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+
59%
St Andrews United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals
96%
Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals
84%
Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals
64%
St Andrews United 1+ goals
70%
St Andrews United 2+ goals
34%
St Andrews United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)
88%
St Andrews United (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sauchie Juniors at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

St Andrews United away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.50 + St Andrews United defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.38

St Andrews United attack 1.25 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Sauchie Juniors scores more
77%
level
13%
St Andrews United scores more
10%

Sauchie Juniors at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Sauchie Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sauchie Juniors vs St Andrews United

Sauchie Juniors beat St Andrews United 4-2 in FA Cup on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Beechwood Park in Sauchie.