Sauchie Juniors 2–0 Lothian Hutchison

Sauchie Juniors

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lothian Hutchison

8/30/2025

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sauchie Juniors59%

×Draw20%

Lothian Hutchison21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sauchie JuniorsExpected goals in this matchLothian Hutchison

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.30

Sauchie Juniors

2.25

Lothian Hutchison

1.30

Sauchie Juniors creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.44

1.17

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sauchie Juniors

2.50

Lothian Hutchison

1.44

allows per match

Sauchie Juniors

1.17

Lothian Hutchison

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par

Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sauchie Juniors ↓

Lothian Hutchison →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sauchie Juniors or draw

79%

Sauchie Juniors or Lothian Hutchison

80%

Draw or Lothian Hutchison

41%

Winning margin

Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+

37%

Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+

Team goals

Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals

89%

Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals

65%

Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals

39%

Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals

73%

Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals

37%

Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)

73%

Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sauchie Juniors at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Lothian Hutchison away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.50 + Lothian Hutchison defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Lothian Hutchison attack 1.44 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sauchie Juniors scores more

59%

level

20%

Lothian Hutchison scores more

21%

Sauchie Juniors at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sauchie Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sauchie Juniors vs Lothian Hutchison

Sauchie Juniors beat Lothian Hutchison 2-0 in FA Cup on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Beechwood Park in Sauchie.

Sauchie Juniors vs Lothian Hutchison — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sauchie Juniors vs Lothian Hutchison