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Sauchie Juniors vs Burntisland Shipyard — FA Cup 2019

Sauchie Juniors
Sauchie Juniors
FT
4 – 0
Burntisland Shipyard
Burntisland Shipyard
9/2/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sauchie Juniors80%
×Draw12%
Burntisland Shipyard9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sauchie Juniors
3.38
Burntisland Shipyard
1.08

Sauchie Juniors creates 213% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sauchie Juniors
2.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.00

allows per match

Sauchie Juniors
1.17
Burntisland Shipyard
4.25

finishing

Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par
Burntisland Shipyard+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sauchie Juniors ↓

Burntisland Shipyard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Sauchie Juniors or draw
91%
Sauchie Juniors or Burntisland Shipyard
88%
Draw or Burntisland Shipyard
20%

Winning margin

Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+
62%
Burntisland Shipyard wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals
96%
Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals
84%
Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals
64%
Burntisland Shipyard 1+ goals
66%
Burntisland Shipyard 2+ goals
29%
Burntisland Shipyard 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)
90%
Burntisland Shipyard (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sauchie Juniors at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Burntisland Shipyard away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.50 + Burntisland Shipyard defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.38

Burntisland Shipyard attack 1.00 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sauchie Juniors scores more
80%
level
12%
Burntisland Shipyard scores more
9%

Sauchie Juniors at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sauchie Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sauchie Juniors vs Burntisland Shipyard

Sauchie Juniors beat Burntisland Shipyard 4-0 in FA Cup on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Beechwood Park in Auchinleck.