Sauchie Juniors 0–2 Buckie Thistle: Result & Stats

Sauchie Juniors

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Buckie Thistle

D. McHardy 87'

M. Goodall 24'

10/26/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sauchie Juniors50%

×Draw22%

Buckie Thistle28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sauchie JuniorsExpected goals in this matchBuckie Thistle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.40

Sauchie Juniors

1.96

Buckie Thistle

1.40

Sauchie Juniors creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

2.50

creates per match

1.64

1.17

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sauchie Juniors

2.50

Buckie Thistle

1.64

allows per match

Sauchie Juniors

1.17

Buckie Thistle

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par

Buckie Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sauchie Juniors ↓

Buckie Thistle →

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sauchie Juniors or draw

72%

Sauchie Juniors or Buckie Thistle

78%

Draw or Buckie Thistle

50%

Winning margin

Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+

29%

Buckie Thistle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals

86%

Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals

58%

Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals

31%

Buckie Thistle 1+ goals

75%

Buckie Thistle 2+ goals

41%

Buckie Thistle 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)

65%

Buckie Thistle (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sauchie Juniors at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Buckie Thistle away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.50 + Buckie Thistle defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.96

Buckie Thistle attack 1.64 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sauchie Juniors scores more

50%

level

22%

Buckie Thistle scores more

28%

Sauchie Juniors at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sauchie Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. Goodall↳ J. Peters

58'

Mark Smith← S. McDowell

80'

C. Cormack← S. Pugh

82'

Sam Davidson← D. Smith

82'

A. Isaacs← J. Thomson

87'

D. McHardy↳ J. Maciver

89'

J. Fisher← R. Hutchison

90'

T. Harrison← S. Collumbine

90+2'

L. Harvey← J. Peters

Sauchie

Buckie

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Duncan

58'▲Mark Smith←▼S. McDowell

82'▲Sam Davidson←▼D. Smith

82'▲A. Isaacs←▼J. Thomson

89'▲J. Fisher←▼R. Hutchison

90'▲T. Harrison←▼S. Collumbine

Sauchie Juniors substitutes

15Smith11Davidson17Isaacs19Fisher22Harrison20Burt12Mcburney24Griffiths

Manager: L. MacKinnon

80'▲C. Cormack←▼S. Pugh

90+2'▲L. Harvey←▼J. Peters

Buckie Thistle substitutes

8Cormack23Harvey4Morrison19Munro14MacKinnon12Fitzgerald