Sauchie Juniors 3–2 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Sauchie Juniors

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

R. Hutchison 43'

S. Collumbine 37'

Scott Davidson 21'

Z. Khan 90+1'

K. McGachie 42'

10/22/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundBeechwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sauchie Juniors54%

×Draw22%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sauchie JuniorsExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.25

Sauchie Juniors

1.97

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.25

Sauchie Juniors creates 58% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.33

1.17

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sauchie Juniors

2.50

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.33

allows per match

Sauchie Juniors

1.17

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sauchie Juniors+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sauchie Juniors ↓

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sauchie Juniors or draw

76%

Sauchie Juniors or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

78%

Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

46%

Winning margin

Sauchie Juniors wins by 2+

31%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sauchie Juniors 1+ goals

86%

Sauchie Juniors 2+ goals

58%

Sauchie Juniors 3+ goals

31%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

71%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

36%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sauchie Juniors (draw refunded)

69%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sauchie Juniors at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sauchie Juniors attack 2.50 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.97

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 1.33 + Sauchie Juniors defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sauchie Juniors scores more

54%

level

22%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

24%

Sauchie Juniors at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sauchie Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Scott Davidson↳ R. Balmer

24'

C. Doan← L. Currie

37'

S. Collumbine↳ C. Kelly

42'

K. McGachie↳ S. Gray

43'

R. Hutchison↳ R. Kavanagh

60'

K. Hall← K. Smith

79'

Z. Khan← B. Wilson

85'

D. McCaughie← D. Smith

85'

D. Connor← C. Kelly

90+1'

Z. Khan

Sauchie

Bonnyrigg

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: F. Duncan

85'▲D. McCaughie←▼D. Smith

85'▲D. Connor←▼C. Kelly

Sauchie Juniors substitutes

15McCaughie23Connor5Tully16Willaghan24McMahon11Davidson17Docherty12Fisher20Collumbine

Manager: R. Horn

24'▲C. Doan←▼L. Currie

60'▲K. Hall←▼K. Smith

79'▲Z. Khan←▼B. Wilson

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic substitutes

17Doan12Hall18Khan14Hunter15Grigor25Andrews