Saturn Ramenskoye 3–1 Peresvet Podolsk

Saturn Ramenskoye

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Peresvet Podolsk

11/5/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Leon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye60%

×Draw20%

Peresvet Podolsk20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saturn RamenskoyeExpected goals in this matchPeresvet Podolsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.23

Saturn Ramenskoye

2.25

Peresvet Podolsk

1.23

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 83% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 42 away

1.98

creates per match

1.24

1.21

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.98

Peresvet Podolsk

1.24

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.21

Peresvet Podolsk

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw

80%

Saturn Ramenskoye or Peresvet Podolsk

80%

Draw or Peresvet Podolsk

40%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

38%

Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

89%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

65%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

39%

Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals

71%

Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals

35%

Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

75%

Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.98 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.25

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

60%

level

20%

Peresvet Podolsk scores more

20%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff