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Saturn Ramenskoye vs Orel — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saturn Ramenskoye
Saturn Ramenskoye
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Orel
Orel
D. Beskorovaynyi 58'
M. Bogdanets 52'
B. Matsola 34'
E. Nabatov 29' (OG)
E. Nabatov 76'
D. Arsentjev 61'
I. Bugaenko 18'
4/4/2026Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye50%
×Draw23%
Orel26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.79
Orel
1.23

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 46% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 35 away

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.98
Orel
1.26

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.21
Orel
1.60

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par
Orel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Orel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw
74%
Saturn Ramenskoye or Orel
77%
Draw or Orel
50%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+
28%
Orel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals
83%
Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals
53%
Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals
26%
Orel 1+ goals
71%
Orel 2+ goals
35%
Orel 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)
66%
Orel (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

Orel away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.98 + Orel defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.79

Orel attack 1.26 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more
50%
level
23%
Orel scores more
26%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
I. Bugaenko
29'
E. NabatovOwn goal
34'
B. Matsola
52'
M. Bogdanets
58'
D. Beskorovaynyi
61'
D. Arsentjev
76'
E. Nabatov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Saturn Ramenskoye 4–3 Orel

Saturn Ramenskoye beat Orel 4-3 in Second League - Group 3 on April 4, 2026.

Goals: I. Bugaenko (18'), E. Nabatov (29' o.g., 76'), B. Matsola (34'), M. Bogdanets (52'), D. Beskorovaynyi (58'), D. Arsentjev (61').

The match was played at Stadion Saturn in Ramenskoye.