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Saturn Ramenskoye vs Krasnyy-SGAFKST — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saturn Ramenskoye
Saturn Ramenskoye
FT
6 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
5/21/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye54%
×Draw21%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saturn Ramenskoye
2.09
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.34

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 56% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.98
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
1.47

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.21
Krasnyy-SGAFKST
2.20

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par
Krasnyy-SGAFKST+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Krasnyy-SGAFKST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw
76%
Saturn Ramenskoye or Krasnyy-SGAFKST
79%
Draw or Krasnyy-SGAFKST
46%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+
32%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals
88%
Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals
62%
Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals
34%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 1+ goals
74%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 2+ goals
39%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)
69%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

Krasnyy-SGAFKST away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.98 + Krasnyy-SGAFKST defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.09

Krasnyy-SGAFKST attack 1.47 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more
54%
level
21%
Krasnyy-SGAFKST scores more
24%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saturn Ramenskoye vs Krasnyy-SGAFKST

Saturn Ramenskoye beat Krasnyy-SGAFKST 6-2 in Second League - Group 3 on May 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Saturn in Ramenskoe.