Saturn Ramenskoye 0–0 Khimik Vurnary

Saturn Ramenskoye

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khimik Vurnary

9/13/2023

Cup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundLeon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye46%

×Draw22%

Khimik Vurnary33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saturn RamenskoyeExpected goals in this matchKhimik Vurnary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.63

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.96

Khimik Vurnary

1.63

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.25

creates per match

1.00

2.25

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

0.25

Khimik Vurnary

1.00

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

2.25

Khimik Vurnary

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Khimik Vurnary →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw

67%

Saturn Ramenskoye or Khimik Vurnary

78%

Draw or Khimik Vurnary

54%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

25%

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

86%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

58%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

31%

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals

80%

Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals

48%

Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

58%

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 0.25 + Khimik Vurnary defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.00 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

46%

level

22%

Khimik Vurnary scores more

33%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saturn Ramenskoye vs Khimik Vurnary

Saturn Ramenskoye and Khimik Vurnary drew 0-0 in Cup on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Leon Arena in Ramenskoe.

Saturn Ramenskoye vs Khimik Vurnary — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Saturn Ramenskoye vs Khimik Vurnary