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Saturn Ramenskoye vs Fakel II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saturn Ramenskoye
Saturn Ramenskoye
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fakel II
Fakel II
10/24/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye67%
×Draw19%
Fakel II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saturn Ramenskoye
2.17
Fakel II
0.87

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 149% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 30 away

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.98
Fakel II
0.53

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye
1.21
Fakel II
2.37

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par
Fakel II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Fakel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw
86%
Saturn Ramenskoye or Fakel II
81%
Draw or Fakel II
33%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+
43%
Fakel II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals
89%
Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals
64%
Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals
36%
Fakel II 1+ goals
58%
Fakel II 2+ goals
22%
Fakel II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)
83%
Fakel II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

Fakel II away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.98 + Fakel II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fakel II attack 0.53 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more
67%
level
19%
Fakel II scores more
14%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saturn Ramenskoye vs Fakel II

Saturn Ramenskoye beat Fakel II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Saturn in Ramenskoe.