Saturn Ramenskoye 4–0 Balashikha: Result & Stats

Saturn Ramenskoye

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Balashikha

I. Predeus 83'

A. Golovnya 45'

D. Polyakov 6'

R. Shcherbin 4'

8/6/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Stadion Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye66%

×Draw20%

Balashikha14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saturn RamenskoyeExpected goals in this matchBalashikha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.84

Saturn Ramenskoye

2.11

Balashikha

0.84

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 151% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

1.98

creates per match

0.47

1.21

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.98

Balashikha

0.47

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.21

Balashikha

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Balashikha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Balashikha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw

86%

Saturn Ramenskoye or Balashikha

80%

Draw or Balashikha

34%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

42%

Balashikha wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

88%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

62%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

35%

Balashikha 1+ goals

57%

Balashikha 2+ goals

21%

Balashikha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

83%

Balashikha (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

Balashikha away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.98 + Balashikha defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.11

Balashikha attack 0.47 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

66%

level

20%

Balashikha scores more

14%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

R. Shcherbin

6'

D. Polyakov

7'

V. Frolov

15'

A. Zakirov← D. Polyakov

39'

Y. Zemlin← O. Dolgalev

45'

A. Golovnya

46'

N. Polshchikov← V. Frolov

46'

A. Samylin← V. Markov

46'

Y. Martynyuk← A. Grigorjev

46'

I. Mazurov← I. Salakhetdinov

54'

S. Kolychev

56'

N. Shaleev← M. Burlakov

68'

A. Yurjev← A. Morgunov

68'

I. Predeus← D. Proshlyakov

76'

V. Pogrebnoy← Y. Zemlin

81'

N. Shaleev

83'

I. Predeus

90+1'

A. M. Zakirov

Saturn

Balashikha

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Kulikov

15'▲A. Zakirov←▼D. Polyakov

46'▲N. Polshchikov←▼V. Frolov

46'▲A. Samylin←▼V. Markov

68'▲A. Yurjev←▼A. Morgunov

68'▲I. Predeus←▼D. Proshlyakov

Saturn Ramenskoye substitutes

ZakirovPolshchikovSamylinYurjevPredeus

Manager: M. Popov

39'▲Y. Zemlin←▼O. Dolgalev

46'▲Y. Martynyuk←▼A. Grigorjev

46'▲I. Mazurov←▼I. Salakhetdinov

56'▲N. Shaleev←▼M. Burlakov

76'▲V. Pogrebnoy←▼Y. Zemlin

Balashikha substitutes

ZemlinMartynyukMazurovShaleevPogrebnoy

Second League - Group 3: Saturn Ramenskoye 4–0 Balashikha

Saturn Ramenskoye beat Balashikha 4-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 6, 2022.

Goals: R. Shcherbin (4'), D. Polyakov (6'), A. Golovnya (45'), I. Predeus (83').

The match was played at Stadion Saturn in Ramenskoe.

Saturn Ramenskoye vs Balashikha — Second League - Group 3 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 3: Saturn Ramenskoye 4–0 Balashikha