Satun 0–0 Nakhon Pathom: Result & Stats

Satun

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nakhon Pathom

12/6/2023

League Cup · 1st RoundSatun Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Satun22%

×Draw21%

Nakhon Pathom57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SatunExpected goals in this matchNakhon Pathom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.13

Satun

1.25

Nakhon Pathom

2.13

Nakhon Pathom creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

2.75

1.50

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Satun

1.75

Nakhon Pathom

2.75

allows per match

Satun

1.50

Nakhon Pathom

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Satun+0.00on par

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Satun ↓

Nakhon Pathom →

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Satun or draw

43%

Satun or Nakhon Pathom

79%

Draw or Nakhon Pathom

78%

Winning margin

Satun wins by 2+

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Satun 1+ goals

71%

Satun 2+ goals

36%

Satun 3+ goals

13%

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

88%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

63%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Satun (draw refunded)

28%

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Satun at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Satun attack 1.75 + Nakhon Pathom defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nakhon Pathom attack 2.75 + Satun defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Satun scores more

22%

level

21%

Nakhon Pathom scores more

57%

Nakhon Pathom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff