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Satun vs Muangthong United — League Cup 2021

Satun
Satun
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Muangthong United
Muangthong Unitedadvanced
3/13/2024League CupLeague Cup · Round of 16Satun Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Satun27%
×Draw24%
Muangthong United49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Satun
1.19
Muangthong United
1.69

Muangthong United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Satun
1.75
Muangthong United
1.88

allows per match

Satun
1.50
Muangthong United
0.63

finishing

Satun+0.00on par
Muangthong United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Satun ↓

Muangthong United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Satun or draw
51%
Satun or Muangthong United
76%
Draw or Muangthong United
73%

Winning margin

Satun wins by 2+
11%
Muangthong United wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Satun 1+ goals
70%
Satun 2+ goals
33%
Satun 3+ goals
12%
Muangthong United 1+ goals
82%
Muangthong United 2+ goals
50%
Muangthong United 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Satun (draw refunded)
35%
Muangthong United (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Satun at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Muangthong United away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Satun attack 1.75 + Muangthong United defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Muangthong United attack 1.88 + Satun defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Satun scores more
27%
level
24%
Muangthong United scores more
49%

Muangthong United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Muangthong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Satun vs Muangthong United

Muangthong United beat Satun 3-1 in League Cup on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Satun Municipal Stadium in Satun.