Satun 0–2 Lamphun Warrior: Result & Stats

Satun

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lamphun Warrior

12/28/2025

League Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Satun18%

×Draw20%

Lamphun Warrior62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SatunExpected goals in this matchLamphun Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

2.15

Satun

1.07

Lamphun Warrior

2.15

Lamphun Warrior creates 101% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

2.80

1.50

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Satun

1.75

Lamphun Warrior

2.80

allows per match

Satun

1.50

Lamphun Warrior

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Satun+0.00on par

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Satun ↓

Lamphun Warrior →

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Satun or draw

38%

Satun or Lamphun Warrior

80%

Draw or Lamphun Warrior

82%

Winning margin

Satun wins by 2+

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Satun 1+ goals

66%

Satun 2+ goals

29%

Satun 3+ goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

88%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

63%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Satun (draw refunded)

23%

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Satun at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Satun attack 1.75 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.80 + Satun defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Satun scores more

18%

level

20%

Lamphun Warrior scores more

62%

Lamphun Warrior at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff