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SAT Moreno vs Estrella Del Sur — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

SAT Moreno
SAT Moreno
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Estrella Del Sur
Estrella Del Sur
8/11/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 4Camping Moreno SATSAID

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SAT Moreno37%
×Draw28%
Estrella Del Sur35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SAT Moreno
1.18
Estrella Del Sur
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

SAT Moreno
1.43
Estrella Del Sur
1.43

allows per match

SAT Moreno
0.86
Estrella Del Sur
0.93

finishing

SAT Moreno+0.00on par
Estrella Del Sur+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SAT Moreno ↓

Estrella Del Sur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SAT Moreno or draw
65%
SAT Moreno or Estrella Del Sur
72%
Draw or Estrella Del Sur
63%

Winning margin

SAT Moreno wins by 2+
15%
Estrella Del Sur wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SAT Moreno 1+ goals
69%
SAT Moreno 2+ goals
33%
SAT Moreno 3+ goals
12%
Estrella Del Sur 1+ goals
68%
Estrella Del Sur 2+ goals
32%
Estrella Del Sur 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SAT Moreno (draw refunded)
51%
Estrella Del Sur (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SAT Moreno at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Estrella Del Sur away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SAT Moreno attack 1.43 + Estrella Del Sur defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

Estrella Del Sur attack 1.43 + SAT Moreno defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SAT Moreno scores more
37%
level
28%
Estrella Del Sur scores more
35%

SAT Moreno at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SAT Moreno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SAT Moreno vs Estrella Del Sur

Estrella Del Sur beat SAT Moreno 3-2 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Camping Moreno SATSAID in Moreno, Provincia de Buenos Aires.